I really loathe the fact that the Oscars are so early this year. I never liked the fact that the Academy moved them to February in the first place, but February 9th is just plain ridiculously early. I’m glad that they will be back in late February next year and in 2022.
I’ve been so busy with a new job that I have fallen massively behind on my blog. Everything since “Parasite” in late November to “Joker” last Sunday are movies I need to write reviews for but since the Oscars actually have a deadline I need to just skip over all the movies I’ve seen for now and post my Oscar picks before it is too late.
As I always do, I’ll list how many films in each category I have seen, who I think will win and then rank the performances, direction or films from least deserving to most deserving.
Best Supporting Actress 4/5
Will Win-Laura Dern in Marriage Story
5th-Kathy Bates in “Richard Jewell”-I haven’t seen this movie so I have to put it last. I love Kathy Bates, but I am glad this movie was glad this movie wasn’t nominated for Best Picture. After “American Sniper” I have no desire to ever see a movie Clint Eastwood directs ever again.
4th-Laura Dern in “Marriage Story”-I love Laura Dern and I’m okay that she’s going to win but this role and performance has no depth. It’s just a no-nonsense divorce lawyer. A nothing special performance a very good movie.
3rd-Margot Robbie in “Bombshell”-What a three years she’s had. I think she will go the way of Charlize Theron and Jessica Lange and win an Oscar or two, but this isn’t the movie that is going to do it for her, nor should it be. It’s a good performance, that has way more depth than Dern but not enough to deserve the win.
2nd-Florence Pugh in “Little Women”-I didn’t love his version of “Little Women”. I think the 1994 version is much better, but she does give Amy her own twist and certainly gives her more agency than Kristin Dunst/Samantha Mathis did.
1st-Scarlett Johansson in “Jojo Rabbit”-I had serious issues with the concept of this movie before I saw it and I still have many issues with in. However, I have no issues with ScarJo’s performance. She is the best thing in this film and truly gives it it’s heart. She should have won an Oscar twenty-one years ago in this category for “The Horse Whisperer”. She should win for this performance, she won’t but at she got nominated this time.
Best Supporting Actor-4/5
Will Win-Brad Pitt in “Once upon a Time…in Hollywood
5th-Tom Hanks in “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”-I haven’t seen this movie, so I have to put it last. When Tom Hanks was nominated for “Castaway” and got his fifth nomination I never imagined he would go nineteen years before he got another Oscar nomination. I have always liked Tom Hanks and I am happy he has entered the distinct list of Actors who have been nominated in four different decades (80s with “Big”, 90s with “Philadelphia”, “ Forrest Gump” and “Saving Private Ryan”, 2000s with “Castaway” and 2010s with “A Beautiful day in the Neighborhood).
4th-Brad Pitt in “Once upon a Time…in Hollywood”-Why in the world his he going to win for this other than the fact that people have decided it’s his turn? Is it because everybody else in this category already has an Oscar? Well, he does too! Granted it’s for producing but it’s not like he doesn’t have one. This performance is fine, and I guess it deserves to be nominated but to win? No way.
3rd-Joe Pesci in “The Irishman”-Joe Pesci is really good in this movie but let’s get real we have seen him play this role before. Is that why Brad Pitt is going to win? Perhaps.
2nd-Al Pacino in “The Irishman”-Like Pesci he’s really good and like Pesci you feel like you’ve seen him play this before.
1st-Anthony Hopkins in “The Two Popes”-I have him first by default which I think is why Brad Pitt is going to win. In a year when Hanks is bland, Pesci and Pacino are a good but repeating thing they have done before it’s only Pitt and Hopkins doing something new. I go with Hopkins because this is very different than anything, I’ve seen him do before…and can you believe it’s been 22 years since the last time he was nominated?!?!?
Best Actress 4/5
Will Win-Renee Zellweger in Judy
5th-Cynthia Erivo in “Harriet”-I haven’t seen this movie. I’m sure she’s great but I haven’t seen it.
4th-Charlize Theron in “Bombshell”-Each of the three times Charlize has been nominated I’ve been thrilled. I was championing her as a great actress long before “Monster” but let’s get real. There is no way she should win. All she did was change her voice and have hair and make-up done.
3rd-Saorise Ronan in “Little Woman”-I love her, but I don’t love the movie. For me Winona Ryder will always be Jo and as much as I love Ronan, I think she was a bit miscast.
2nd-Scarlett Johansson in “Marriage Story”-What a year! Two great performances! Too bad for her that she’s gonna go the way of Sigourney Weaver and Julianne Moore and loose two Oscars in one night.
1st-Renee Zellweger in “Judy”-She’s been the favorite since before this movie came out and she deserves it. I really enjoyed this movie and Renee is fantastic in it. What an incredible comeback!
Best Actor-4/5
Will Win-Joaquin Phoenix in Joker
5th-Antonio Banderas in “Pain and Glory”-I haven’t seen this movie, but I’m thrilled he finally got his Oscar nomination.
4th-Jonathan Pryce in “The Two Popes”-Just like with Banderas I’m thrilled he finally has an Oscar nomination. His performance was good, it had a touch of depth, but he certainly shouldn’t win.
3rd-Leonardo DiCaprio in “Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood”-Oscar Nomination number seven put him in some pretty great company. He carries this movie and he absolutely deserves this nomination. In a weaker year I’d argue that he should win but not this year.
2nd-Adam Driver in “Marriage Story”-Truly a revelation! I had no idea he had this in him. If he pulled, he upset I wouldn’t be upset.
1st-Joaquin Phoenix in “Joker”-A brilliant performance that deserves to win. It’s just that simple.
Best Director-5/5
Will Win-Sam Mendes for “1917”
5th-Bong Joon-ho for “Parasite”-It’s a good movie that is visually interesting but not nearly as revolutionary as many people want it to be.
4th-Martin Scorsese for “The Irishman”-This movie is excellent, and the direction is classic Scorsese but like Pesci, Pacino and DeNiro’s performances it is hurt by the fact that we’ve seen the same thing from him many times before.
3rd-Todd Philips for “Joker”-This movie is brilliantly directed. Philips truly creates a world and a mood. A well-deserved nomination.
2nd-Quentin Tarantino for “Once upon a Time…in Hollywood”-This is by far Tarantino’s best film since “Pulp Fiction”. I emphasizes his strengths as a director and minimized his weaknesses. If he pulls the upset and wins I wouldn’t be upset.
1st-Sam Mendes for “1917”-Not only does he create a one shot film he also creates an atmosphere. It’s a war movie that is different than other war movies. He should win.
Best Picture-9/9…For the 25th year in a row I have seen all of the Best Picture nominees before Oscar night!
Will Win-1917
9th-Little Woman-Is it good? Sure, it’s good but the direction and editing take away any kind of suspense about what will happen. This film pales in comparison to the 1994 version.
8th-Parasite-Interesting and entertaining from start to finish but it’s not revolutionary. This film is majorly overhyped.
7th-Jojo Rabbit-The first ten minutes are super offensive. After that there is a good and moving film underneath the ridiculous attempts at comedy.
6th-Ford v Ferrari-After I saw this movie a woman walking out of the theatre summed it up perfect. Sure, it was good but who cares?
5th-The Irishman-This film is very good but as I have mentioned before all the parties involved have done similar and better work before.
4th-Once upon a Time…In Hollywood-I enjoyed this film way more than I thought I would. As I mentioned before it’s Tarantino’s best work since “Pulp Fiction” but it does have its moments of self-indulgence.
3rd-Joker-A an uncomfortable psychological portrait of a man with mental illness. Not easy to watch but still excellent and well deserving of its nomination.
2nd-Marriage Story-This is the kind of movie a I love. A family drama with real characters and great acting. It’s too bad the night I watched it the electricity went out in my apartment and I had to watch the last forty minutes on my phone.
1st-1917-I liked all nine nominated films to varying degrees. For me this is the best.
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Here is a description:
Justin Gomez and his sister, Terri, have never been close. Separated by nine years and distant in adulthood, Justin and Terri have little in common, except for the love of her three children. In the days before they embark on a road trip to visit the father that once abandoned them and their now deceased mother, both Terri and Justin are dealing with unexpected changes in their lives. Justin surprisingly realizes he might want more than a series of one night stands after a first date goes unexpectedly well. After a lifetime of being a strong type A personality, Terri is forced to confront the reality of the end of her marriage. As they hit the road, with Terri’s children in tow, they find themselves forced to rely on and confide in each other following a devastating event. Confronted with memories from the past and challenges from the present, Terri and Justin must dig deep and unearth the truth about themselves and their parents in order to build a new family based on their love for each other.
jeremyochsgonzales 