For whatever reason the Golden Globes get all the press but it is really the Screen Actors Guild Awards that give us the best chance to predict who will win come Oscar night.
These awards are on Sunday night so by Monday morning we should know with 95% certainty who our next batch of Oscar winners will be. Of course, the SAG awards also recognize TV. Below are my thoughts for each category for both who and should win for each category. One additional note about the SAG awards, in a way that they are the best awards show. There isn’t ever a host; there aren’t any stupid musical numbers. They just present the awards, show clips for each nominee and as a result the winners aren’t played off by music as much as they are at the other awards.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries
Will Win-Benedict Cumberbatch in Sherlock: His Last Vow…SAG will want to recognize the year he has and since he won’t win for The Imitation Game this is their chance to give him something.
Should Win-Mark Ruffalo in The Normal Heart…Overlooked at the Emmys and the Golden Globes this is his last chance to be recognized for his great work in this important film.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries
Will Win-Frances McDormand in Olive Kitteridge
Should Win-Julia Roberts in The Normal Heart…Like Ruffalo this is her last chance to get recognized for her performance in this TV movie. This was one of the greatest performances of her career.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series
Will Win-Julia Louis-Dreyfus on Veep
Should Win-Julia Louis-Dreyfus on Veep…She and the show get better with each season
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series
Will Win-Eric Stonestreet on Modern Family
Jim Parsons on The Big Bang Theory…He is genius
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series
Will Win-Steve Buscemi on Boardwalk Empire
Should Win-Peter Dinklage on Game of Thrones…I’m also okay with Kevin Spacey winning. If somebody from True Detective has to win I would much rather it be Woody Harrelson, I’m so over Matthew McConaughey right now it’s not even funny
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series
Will Win-Tatiana Maslany on Orphan Black
Should Win-Robin Wright on House of Cards…She continues to knock the role of a lifetime out of the park
Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series
Will Win-Orange is the New Black
Should Win-Veep…So funny and so smart
Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series
Will Win-Downton Abbey
Should Win-Game of Thrones…So ignored by so many awards, this is one it really should win. It is a true ensemble.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Will Win-Patricia Arquette in Boyhood
Should Win-Naomi Watts in St. Vincent…I’m so happy that Patricia Arquette is having this moment in time. Keira Knightley continues to win me over, Emma Stone has officially taken over the career that Lindsay Lohan should have had, Meryl Streep is well, Meryl Streep but Naomi Watts knocked her role in St. Vincent out of the park. It truly is everything a supporting role should be. It’s a shame she didn’t get an Oscar nomination.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Will Win-J.K. Simmons in Whiplash
Should Win-Ethan Hawke in Boyhood…If Ruffalo had been given more screen time in Foxcatcher I’d probably say him but he isn’t given enough time to show us the depth needed to win.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
Will Win-Eddie Redmayne in The Theory of Everything…This is really the only competitive acting race for feature films. Michael Keaton could easily also win.
Should Win-Eddie Redmaye in The Theory of Everything…Carell really tires to ACT in Foxcatcher, Cumberbatch is fantastic in The Imitation Game but doesn’t pack the emotional punch of Redmaye, Gyllenhall is creepy and effective in Nightcrawler but he’s been better…Keaton is great in Birdman but at the end he doesn’t become his character the same way Redmayne becomes Steven Hawking.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Will Win-Julianne Moore in Still Alice
Should Win-Julianne Moore in Still Alice…Enjoy this moment Jennifer Aniston, this is probably the closest you’ll ever get to an Oscar nomination. Rosamund Pike was fantastic in a star making performance. Reese Witherspoon completely shook off her Rom Com image. This is actually a difficult choice but at good as Jones was in The Theory of Everything I have to go with the overdue Julianne Moore.
Outstanding Performance by a cast in a Motion Picture
Should Win-The Theory of Everything…I think Boyhood is the better movie BUT if you take this award at face value it’s for the best performance by a cast overall. The combined strength of Redmaye and Jones are enough to overpower Hawke Arquette and the rest of the Boyhood cast. Birdman is a great ensemble as well as is the Imitation Game…And the best thing I can say about anything related to The Grand Budapest Hotel is that I saw it on a plane and didn’t spend any money on it.
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